Don’t Expect President Obama To Find You A Job

Let’s chat about unemployment. If you’re worried about losing your job, or you’re having trouble finding a new one since you were laid off here is the reason: the real unemployment rate in the United States is almost 17% and fast approaching 25% where it is going to stay for a very long time. If you live in California it’s even worse. You may think I’m a Pollyanna since the official US Census Bureau unemployment statistics for September 2008 are 6.5% and 7.7% respectively, but I assure you that I am right on target.

Look at it this way. Labor economists believe that when the United States economy is operating at capacity the unemployment rate is 5%. We could spend a lot of time defining and defending these terms and numbers (and economists do) but let us assume, for the moment, they know what they are talking about. Am I forecasting, then, that the economy is headed for a deep and protracted downturn? To the contrary, I am forecasting that the United States economy will work its way out of the current “financial meltdown” shortly, and will perform relatively well into the foreseeable future. But a huge segment of the so-called American workforce will not participate in the economy because it’s payback time.

Consider the following thought. Suppose the American economy were run to be as efficient and effective as possible instead of to create more jobs and achieve “social and economic justice”. What size workforce would this economy need? I suspect that workforce would be about two-thirds to three-fourths the current size, and that the downsized workforce would create even more wealth than the current one. Business leaders know this and so are using the current financial mess to clean house.

Since the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, American business has been forced to meet “social responsibility” goals along with running a business. And these goals have been sucking the life out of the corporations and the economy. Using well recognized indexes of the stock market which have been adjusted for inflation, it is truly astounding how little real wealth has been created during the past forty years. Now it’s over. Business leaders can go around the world to find people who want to come to work every day on time, and who are willing to put in a fair day’s work for a fair day’s pay instead of filing a sexual harassment claim, or whatever. And there’s nothing President elect Barrack Obama or anyone else can do about it. And by the way, it you think it’s tough doing business in America, you should try California. Folks here are actually proud the state is the worst place in the civilized world to do business. Go figure.